tropical depression 17

HURRICANE CENTER: Now Two Tropical Depressions To Watch

Boca Raton Florida hurricane Palm Beach County Hurricane

Early For Tracking, But Florida Should Pay Attention. Tropical Storms Likely To Develop Today. Still Several Days Away From Any Potential Impact.

BOCA RATON, FL ( — There are now two tropical depressions to watch, and both are expected to become tropical storms in the next few days. One may become a tropical storm today. Both storms are in the warm waters betwee Africa and Florida, with Tropical Depression 17 tracking on a path that Florida residents should watch. It is much to early to fear strom impact, but being prepared for tropical activity this time of year is always a good idea.

Tropical Depression 18 is also one to watch, but — at this point — appears to be on a less certain track.

Here are the two forecast advisories for TD 17 and TD 18 Monday Morning.


Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its
circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area
of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east
of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C.
However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern
portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The
latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt.

The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt
over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue 
throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in 
forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is 
steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall 
guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest 
NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus 
track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the 
forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in 
good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance. 

Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the 
overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next 
few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation, 
strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from 
a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is 
indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h, 
increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification, 
and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected 
consensus, HCCA.


INIT  07/0900Z 17.3N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.5N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 17.8N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 18.3N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 19.1N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 19.7N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 20.1N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 20.6N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 21.7N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

Here is the early forecast advisory for Tropical Depression 18:

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020

800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low 

pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase 

and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible 

satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become 

better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated 

on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic 

hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and 

SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued 

improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for 

this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide 

additional information on the intensity of the cyclone.

The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and 

the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will 

remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression 

traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. 

These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should 

allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC 

forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later 

today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the 

cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the 

global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow 

over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive 

factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the 

end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the 

IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus.

The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 

kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is 

forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected 

to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track 

guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a 

weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west. 

and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then 

northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical 

Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some 

binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the 

period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of 

agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the 

long-range track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm 

later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread 

over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A 

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to 

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.


INIT  07/0900Z 15.2N  20.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  07/1800Z 15.6N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  08/0600Z 16.0N  24.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  08/1800Z 16.4N  27.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  09/0600Z 16.8N  30.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  09/1800Z 17.4N  32.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  10/0600Z 18.1N  35.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  11/0600Z 19.7N  39.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  12/0600Z 22.4N  43.2W   70 KT  80 MPH


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