No Apparent Threat To Florida At This Point, But Carolinas Should Pay Attention
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene chose Labor Day to form during what continues to be a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season. Neither storm appears to be a threat to Florida in very early forecasts, but North and South Carolina may want to pay attention over the next several days as paths become more clear.
There is aboslutely nothing to worry about for now. These forecasts are extremely early.
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We are publishing both Paulette’s forecast and Rene’s forecast below. We noted early taht Paulette is the earliest forming 16th storm of a hurricane season to ever form — at least as long as records have been kept.
Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005. Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges, especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction at days 3 through 5. Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
Here is the Paulette Discussion
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared, with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to just above the 35-kt intensity estimate. The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little, though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to 24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$
Will Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene Hit Florida?
It does not appear that either Paulette or Rene will impact Florida, but it is much too early to be certain. The National Hurricane Center is in the very early stages of tracking and forecasting both storms that became tropical storms on Labor Day, 2020.
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