tropical storm paulette

HURRICANE CENTER TRACKING TWO: Paulette, Rene Now Tropical Storms

Boca Raton Florida hurricane News Palm Beach County Hurricane weather

No Apparent Threat To Florida At This Point, But Carolinas Should Pay Attention

BOCA RATON, FL ( — Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene chose Labor Day to form during what continues to be a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season. Neither storm appears to be a threat to Florida in very early forecasts, but North and South Carolina may want to pay attention over the next several days as paths become more clear.

There is aboslutely nothing to worry about for now. These forecasts are extremely early.


We are publishing both Paulette’s forecast and Rene’s forecast below. We noted early taht Paulette is the earliest forming 16th storm of a hurricane season to ever form — at least as long as records have been kept.

tropical storm rene
Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo 
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the 
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling 
in east of the center.  The satellite intensity estimates currently 
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved 
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised 
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene.  Rene is the 17th 
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the 
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The 
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.

Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue 
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at 
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to 
the north of the storm.  Toward the end of the forecast period, a 
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in 
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges, 
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted 
in that direction at days 3 through 5.

Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as 
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while 
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear 
and high amounts of moisture.  An increase in southwesterly shear 
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend 
and induce some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is again an 
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and 
IVCN consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo 
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.


INIT  07/2100Z 16.1N  22.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.3N  24.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.7N  26.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 17.2N  29.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.8N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 18.6N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N  37.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 22.1N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 26.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

Here is the Paulette Discussion

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become 
better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence 
of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared, 
with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant. 
Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to 
just above the 35-kt intensity estimate.

The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next
day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed
improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear
and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for
substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier
that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No
major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at
this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during 
the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little, 
though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to 
24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering 
flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection 
could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A 
mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central 
North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to 
turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the 
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.


INIT  07/2100Z 17.5N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.9N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.8N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.6N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 20.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 20.8N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 21.1N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 21.8N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 24.0N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH


Will Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene Hit Florida?

tropical storm rene

It does not appear that either Paulette or Rene will impact Florida, but it is much too early to be certain. The National Hurricane Center is in the very early stages of tracking and forecasting both storms that became tropical storms on Labor Day, 2020.


Paul Saperstein


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