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HURRICANE CENTER: Wilfred Forms, Early Track Towards Florida

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Hurricane Wilfred

Tropical Storm Should Dissipate, But For Now Track Worth Watching

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Could the last named storm of 2020 be the one that impacts South Florida? It’s much too soon to know — and the initial forecast has it dissipating next week — but the very early path for Wilfred certainly is one that South Florida should keep an eye on. Wilfred formed earlier Friday. It uses the last storm name on the books for 2020. The next storm will use the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha.

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over 
the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning.  In 
addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit 
with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center.  
The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with 
scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the 
eastern side of the storm).  Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing 
the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is 
the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier 
than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two 
before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the 
path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days.  That 
should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and 
most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up 
into a trough by day 5.  The official forecast follows this 
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the 
consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt.  The storm 
is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, 
owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. 
The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is 
near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the 
direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus.  I should mention that 
if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a 
bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected 
southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back 
west-northwestward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 11.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 15.6N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 16.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.3N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

This is the general five day tropical outlook:



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical 
Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are 
becoming better organized. Earlier satellite-derived wind data 
indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center, 
but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form before the end of the week. This 
system is forecast move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through 
the weekend.  For more information on this system, please see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A small low pressure system located just west of the coast of 
Portugal is embedded within a larger non-tropical low. Although 
showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller low are 
showing signs of organization, the system will soon move inland 
over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development 
is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely 
bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of 
western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about 
potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the 
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more 
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles 
north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move 
quickly southward for the next few days and then stall over 
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest 
of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could 
subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or 
early next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system 
will be possible thereafter while it moves generally 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the 
Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Latto

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