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HURRICANE CENTER: Not Done Yet! Several Systems Being Watched In Atlantic, Gulf

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BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — The National Hurricane Center is again watching several systems in the Atlantic and Gulf. There is no immediate threat to Florida, but keeping an eye on the tropics remains a good idea as this exceptionally active hurricane season remains exceptionally active. The “Tropical Weather Outlook” for Saturday morning leads off our report. The “Tropical Weather Discussion” follows, below.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gamma, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and 
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the 
ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto 
Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then 
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system 
is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 
15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of 
days before it encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is 
associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next couple of 
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO 
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma are issued under WMO 
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Berg
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gamma is centered near 19.4N 86.9W at 03/0900 UTC
or 70 nm S of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Strong thunderstorms 
are evident across the inner core of Gamma and in a prominent band
to north of the center impacting northern Quintana Roo. Another
strong band is moving northwest toward western Cuba. Given the 
size and relatively slow movement of Gamma across the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight, the main threat
continues to be heavy rainfall that could result in life- 
threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican 
states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. Please monitor 
local weather advisories for more details. For marine interests, 
strong winds and seas at least as high as 13 ft will impact the 
Yucatan Channel through tonight. In the south- central Gulf, a 
long fetch of persistent near-gale force NE winds is already 
causing seas to 12 ft off the north coast of Yucatan, along with 
rough surf conditions. Adverse marine conditions will persist into
mid week in the south-central Gulf due to the expected track of 
Gamma. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 18N southward, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. A broad area of disorganized area of 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
08N-16N between 33W-44W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 18N southward, 
moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is evident over the entrance to the Gulf of Venezuela,
to the west of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal 
near 14N17W to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N40W, 
and from 06N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Convection 
near the ITCZ is associated with the tropical wave along 42W,
described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from southwest Florida 
near 26N81W to 22N90W. Another stationary front farther north 
extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida coast near 26N84W. In the far
southwest Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed off the coast of
Veracruz. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated 
strong to near- gale force NW winds funneling between the trough 
and the coast, south of 21N. Large area of strong to near-gale 
force NE winds are noted over the south-central Gulf, between 
Gamma to the southeast and high pressure north of the area. A 
recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were reaching 12 ft
off the Yucatan coast. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
persist elsewhere over the northern Gulf. Seas over the southern 
Bay of Campeche are likely up to 9 ft, in a combination of mixed 
NW and NE swell.

For the forecast, Gamma will enter the south-central Gulf and
reach near 21.7N 88.0W Sun afternoon, then move to 21.8N 88.4W 
Mon morning, 21.6N 89.3W Mon afternoon, and 21.2N 90.5W Tue 
morning. Gamma is expected to change little in intensity as it 
moves across the eastern Bay of Campeche through early Wed. 
Meanwhile a weak stationary front reaching from SW Florida to the 
south-central Gulf will dissipate late by today ahead of Gamma. 
Another stationary front from central Florida to the central Gulf 
will dissipate late Sun into Mon. A cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf Mon and stall over the central Gulf through mid 
week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on information regarding 
T.S. Gamma and the tropical waves section regarding the tropical 
wave in the central Caribbean. 

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the southern coast
of the Dominican Republic this morning, likely due to overnight
drainage flow converging off the coast, but also near where the 
northern portion of the tropical wave is passing. Strong E winds
are noted off the southern coast of Haiti as well, with seas
likely reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere east of 75W, and north of 18N
particularly between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Light to gentle
breezes and modest seas are noted over the southwest Caribbean. 

For the forecast, Gamma will move to 20.2N 87.4W this afternoon, 
inland to 21.1N 87.9W Sun morning, then into the south-central 
Gulf of Mexico through Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will 
gradually diminish over the far northwest Caribbean through Mon. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are expected over the eastern 
and central Caribbean through Sun night. Winds and seas will 
subside through mid week across the basin as Gamma moves farther 
west and high pressure north of the area weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W to 26N80W. A surface trough
is analyzed south of the front, reaching from the northern Bahamas
to central Cuba. A few showers are active over the northern
Bahamas where the trough and front intersect. Another stationary
front is analyzed farther north, from 31N78W to 28N80W. No
significant weather is associated with that front. A broad 
surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure near 40N37W to 
just east of the fronts. The gradient on the southwest side of 
this ridge is supporting fresh to strong E winds off the north 
coast of Hispaniola. Fresh winds and a few showers are also noted 
north of a surface trough embedded in the ridge along 48W from 23N
to 28N. Fresh winds are also associated with the tropical wave 
near 42W. In the eastern Atlantic, Fresh to strong NE winds and 
seas to 9 ft are active off the African coast of Mauritania in 
Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds persist across the 
Atlantic with mostly 5 to 7 ft seas. 

For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the stationary front 
extending from 31N73W to 26N80W will gradually dissipate late 
today or tonight. The other stationary front extending from 
31N78W to 28N80W will dissipate through late Sun. Meanwhile, the 
high pressure north of our area will support moderate to fresh 
trades south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong north of 
Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sun night. Looking 
ahead, a third weak front will move over the Atlantic waters east 
of NE Florida late Sun or early Mon, drift south through Tue then 
stall from 31N73W to near W Palm Beach Florida by mid week. 

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