Still Small Chance Of Development, But Notable For Mid-October
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — There is just a small chance that the yellow X above amounts to anything of concern for South Florida, but it is notable that yet another system is moving towards the state as we approach mid-October. The National Hurricane Center says there’s just a 20 percent chance that the system grows. We always note: the oval you see above is the area where a storm or system may develop, it is not a cone.
While forecasters keep their eyes on the system, we present to you the tropical outlook for Tuesday evening:
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 18W from 00N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave from 04N-16N and east of 21W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 43W from 02N-15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between 36W-42W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave near 14N55W. Scattered moderate convection is just to the east of the low from 11N-22N between 47W-55W. Seas are up to 11 ft near the low. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, so only some slight development is possible today while the system moves westward. By tonight, upper-level winds are expected to become even less favorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A west Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 80W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 20N and west of 80W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave, mainly where the wave meets the monsoon trough south of 13N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the African coast near 14N17W to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 07N42W, then resumes near 07N44W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are from 01N-09N between 11W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is pushing off the NW Gulf coast, stretching from the central Louisiana coast near 30N88W to 27N97W. No significant convection is associated with this front at this time. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 24N97W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and west of the trough over the Mexican coast from 18N-24N and west of 96W. High pressure is building across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE winds are behind the cold front, while gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin with calm seas. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. The cold front will stall this evening before dissipating tonight. A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening. The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the west Caribbean tropical wave. A surface trough is analyzed south of 17N along 70W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean along 10N between 75W-83W enahncing convection across the area. Light to gentle trade winds prevail across the basin with moderate trades north of Colombia. Seas average 3-5 ft. A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed, and to the eastern half of the Caribbean Thu through Sat night. Moderate trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Thu evening as high pressure establishes N of the area. These winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on the Atlantic tropical waves. A surface trough off the Florida coast in the western Atlantic extends from 31N75W to 29N77W. To the east, another surface trough extends from 31N72W to 25N76W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. A surface trough in the west-central Atlantic is analyzed from 30N57W to 28N66W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N43W with scattered showers. This activity is enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. A 1014 mb low is analyzed near 30N26W, with a trough extending southeast of the low to a 1012 mb low near 23N17W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with seas averaging between 3-6 ft. The trough extending across the central Bahamas will dissipate tonight. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri evening and extend from 31N69W to near South Florida Sat evening. Fresh to strong NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and will affect the waters N of 27N over the weekend.
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