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TROPICAL STORM ZETA: Heavy Rains South Florida, Possible Gulf Coast Strike

Tropical Storm Zeta
Tropical Storm Zeta Sunday afternoon

UPDATED: 1:30 p.m. Sunday, October 25, 2020.

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to bring significant rainfall to South Florida over the next several days as it churns on a course to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The system became a tropical storm early Sunday.

Even though the storm itself is tracking away from South Florida, the area is expected to sustain heavy rainfall from the system.


Here is the late morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of the storm is not well-organized and 
somewhat elongated zonally, the system is producing very vigorous 
deep convection, particularly over the southern portion of the 
circulation.  Cirrus cloud motions show that the upper-level 
outflow is well-defined.  The current intensity estimate remains at 
35 kt in agreement with Dvorak values from both TAFB and SAB, and 
pending another Hurricane Hunter mission into the system this 
afternoon.  

The center is difficult to locate at this time, and the best 
estimate for motion is quasi-stationary.  A high pressure area 
developing near Florida should induce a general northwestward 
motion over the next couple of days.  Later, a shortwave trough 
approaching from the west is likely to cause Zeta to turn northward 
and north-northeastward while it nears the northern Gulf Coast in 
72-84 hours.  The official track forecast lies between the GFS 
solution which is farther east and the ECMWF prediction which lies 
farther south and west.

Given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very high 
oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, strengthening 
is likely until the center moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula 
late tomorrow.  Zeta should be near or at hurricane strength when it 
approaches the Yucatan.  The official intensity forecast for the 
next 36 hours is close to the model consensus.  After Zeta moves 
into the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing southwesterly shear and 
diminishing oceanic heat content are expected to prevent 
strengthening.  The NHC intensity forecast over the Gulf is above 
the latest model consensus.  Although not explicitly shown in the 
official forecast, the unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic 
conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico could cause Zeta 
to weaken by the time the center nears the northern Gulf coast.  
However, users are reminded that these intensity forecasts are 
subject to uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday, 
with hurricane conditions possible.  Tropical storm conditions 
could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across 
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, 
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the 
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it 
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and could bring 
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to 
the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the 
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 17.8N  83.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.4N  84.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 19.2N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.3N  86.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 21.9N  88.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 24.0N  90.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 35.0N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Here is the early Sunday morning update from the National Hurricane Center.



Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Earlier this morning, the tropical cyclone located over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea was upgraded to Tropical Storm Zeta at 
0600 UTC based on 0314Z ASCAT surface wind data of 32-33 kt 
located southeast of the broad center. Since then, a NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating Zeta and has found 
maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of about 40 kt and reliable SFMR 
surface winds of 33-36 kt. Recent satellite classifications from 
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial 
intensity is set at 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is stationary. Although Zeta has been 
steadily losing latitude during the past 12 hours, this has been 
primarily due to the broad low-level center reforming closer to the 
very intense convection located in the southern semicircle of the 
cyclone's large circulation. Satellite trends over the past 6 hours 
indicate that a mid-level circulation located about 90 nmi east of 
the low-level center is likely imparting a weak southerly component 
of motion on Zeta as well. Over the course of the next 72 hours, a 
weak shortwave trough currently located over the southeastern U.S. 
from the Tennessee Valley southward into the north-central Gulf of 
Mexico will continue to move eastward, allowing a low- to mid-level 
ridge to steadily build westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and 
the central Gulf of Mexico. This will gradually force Zeta on a 
northwestward track across or near the northeastern tip of the 
Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 h and into the central Gulf of Mexico 
by 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in very agreement on this 
developing 3-day track scenario. Thereafter, however, the models 
diverge fairly significantly due to uncertainty in the evolution of 
the next steering mechanism -- a trough over the northwestern U.S. 
that will dig southward and phase up/merge with a trough off the 
southern California and Baja California coasts. Phasing of northern 
and southern stream systems is always difficult to forecast, 
especially when one of those systems is outside the U.S. upper-air 
observing system like the system currently is off southern 
California. After the two systems phase in about 48 hours, a 
powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to form by 72 h and eject 
eastward out of the southwestern U.S., causing the ridge over the 
Gulf of Mexico to erode eastward. This will allow Zeta to turn 
northward and then northeastward toward the north-central Gulf 
coast.  The global models remain in poor agreement on the details 
of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low, resulting 
in model solutions ranging from Louisiana (ECMWF-UKMET-FSSE) to the 
Florida Panhandle (HWRF-HMON). The new NHC track forecast is a 
little left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and 
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and 
TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of 
motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period, 
the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual.

Although the low- and mid-level circulations remain unaligned, the 
overall environment for the next 60-72 hours is expected to remain 
conducive for at least gradual intensification. After 72 hours, 
however, the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to increase 
while Zeta moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, 
which should result in weakening before the cyclone moves inland. 
The new NHC intensity forecast is a tad higher than the previous 
advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. 
While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should 
weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded 
that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm 
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The 
cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the 
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Zeta is expected to produce tropical storm conditions over 
extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night 
and early Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Tropical Storm 
Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman 
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, 
Southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash 
flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a 
tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm 
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the 
Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the 
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 17.7N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.2N  83.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.9N  84.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.8N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 21.1N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 22.9N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 25.4N  90.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 32.0N  89.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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