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TROPICAL STORM ETA UPDATE: Poor Conditions Expected All Day In Palm Beach County

tropical storm eta monday

Wind. Rain. Flooding. Damage. Expect Tropical Storm Conditions Across South Florida Throughout Much Of Day.

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Tropical Storm Eta continues to hit Palm Beach County with heavy rain, winds, storm surge and flooding in coastal areas. The early morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for more of the same throughout much of the day.

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  36...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around
11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt.  Since then it has
moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida.  The storm has generally changed
little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near
55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data.  Bands
of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions
of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  The upper-level 
trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure 
system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward 
to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through 
tonight.  The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to 
collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing 
Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48 
hour time period.  After that time, the models diverge significantly 
with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response 
to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico.  However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models 
show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta, 
which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in 
those models.  The new track forecast shows a slower northward to 
northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a 
compromise of the latest models and continuity.  Due to the poor 
model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the 
longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if 
the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains
in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions.  However, there will be
a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the
amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on
exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly
shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow
decay.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will
be located later in the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible
across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today.  Flash and
urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor
river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.

3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 25.2N  82.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.8N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 23.9N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 24.8N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 26.0N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 26.7N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 27.8N  84.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 29.4N  83.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been
discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria
Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-
southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected
later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from
the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become
a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm),
with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain.  Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida.  Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern
Florida over the next several days.  Minor river flooding is also
possible for central Florida.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 2-3
ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida
Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas
today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of south Florida and the Keys.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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