BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Hurricane Iota is expected to rapidly intensify before making landfall as a major hurricane. The strike zone is expected to be near an area where Hurricane Eta made landfall just days ago. Here is the latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center, following by the public advisory:
Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota has continued to rapidly intensify, strengthening 35 kt during the past 24 hours. Deep convection has increased in vertical depth and has also expanded, producing a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with a large area of cloud tops colder than -80C surrounding the center. Upper-level outflow has also improved in all quadrants as the deep-layer vertical wind shear has finally abated. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance investigating Iota early this morning measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 76 kt on its outbound leg, which equates to about a 68-kt equivalent surface wind speed. The second center dropsonde pressure was 987 mb with a 21-kt surface wind, which equals about 985 mb, a pressure drop of 4 mb in a little more than an hour. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 70 kt for this advisory. Iota has recently wobbled to the northwest, but the best motion estimate is 280/05 kt. An expansive ridge extending westward from the Atlantic across Florida and over the Gulf of Mexico will keep Iota moving in a westward to west-northwestward motion for the next few days, resulting in a Central America landfall in about 48 hours, close to where former Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month. As low-level ridging increases southward across the Gulf of Mexico on days 3 and 4, Iota is expected to move westward farther inland over Central America and dissipate by day 5. The new NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this developing track scenario. The new official track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance between the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be very conducive for continued rapid strengthening, characterized by low shear less than 5 kt, moist mid-tropospheric air, and sea-surface temperatures of 28.5-29.0 deg C. Therefore, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast for the next 48 hours, with Iota expected to become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches central America. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the bulk of the intensity guidance, but lies a little below the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which bring Iota to 120-125 kt just prior to landfall. The slightly lower intensity is due to the warm water east of Nicaragua becoming a more shallow, which could result in some cold some upwelling, plus a possible eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) occurring. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to rapidly intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.1N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 77.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 77.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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