NHC June 14 2021 noon

IT’S ALIVE! Tropical Depression Two Forms In Atlantic

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The National Hurricane System is watching three areas on June 14th, 2021.

BY: STAFF REPORT | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Just two weeks into the Atlantic hurricane seasons and predictions of an active season appear to be accurate. The season’s second tropical depression just formed.

While it the system is heading eastward from North Carolina — meaning it’s no threat to land and certainly no threat to Florida — it’s a reminder that June isn’t too early to plan for disaster.

Tropical Depression 2 is one of three systems currently being watched by the National Hurricane Center. There is a activity in the Gulf of Mexico being watched, and another area is being watched just off the coast of Africa.

For new Florida residents: you are already behind if you do not have a hurricane plan in place with supplies ready to go. Emergency preparedness officials are concerned this year that the influx of new residents to South Florida will result in disaster if “the big one” actually comes this year.

Here is the 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Depression #2:

Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC 
has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina 
has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast 
over the center and more prominent banding features.  The low also 
has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that 
boundary lying northwest of the center.  Considering the small core 
of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the 
low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) 
-- it is now classified as a tropical depression.  The initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming 
strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface 
observations.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt.  A large 
mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should 
cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but 
faster, over the next couple of days.  In about 48 hours, the system 
is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a 
larger extratropical low.  Model guidance is in very good agreement 
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track 
consensus.

The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in
low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the 
Gulf Stream and decays.  Almost all of the intensity guidance shows 
the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the
healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that
guidance.  The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36
hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in 
about 2 days.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 35.0N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 36.6N  70.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 39.8N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 43.6N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Is there a tropical storm in the Atlantic?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical depression, not a tropical storm, in the Atlantic as of mid-day on Monday, June 14th. It is expected to head east, away from the United States mainland. Two other systems are also being monitored.
NHC June 14 2021 noon

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