Tropical Depression national hurricane center June 28 2021

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED: Tropical Depression 4 Forms

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National Hurricane Center now watching a tropical depression as of June 28, 2021. (Courtesy NHC).

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a system that didn’t even exist mid-day Sunday. Now Tropical Depression 4, the storm will become Danny when it reaches Tropical Storm status.

Another system, which potentially could affect South Florida, is also on the map.

This is the latest as of mid-day from the National Hurricane Center:

A small low pressure system is located about 300 miles
east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, with most of it
displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong
upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters
of the Gulf Stream later this morning, and it has some potential to
become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the
coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by this evening. If the
system becomes more organized today, then tropical storm warnings
could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches
of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and
southern South Carolina through tonight. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system
that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed
into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this
morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution
visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep
convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted
northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear
pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is
consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32
kt just north of the well-defined center.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone
is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion
for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the
south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small
cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when
the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and
ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant
inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered
more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as
depicted by the global and regional models.

There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the
depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall
occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing
over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are
around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to
interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just
offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to
landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows
the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a
result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of
the South Carolina coast.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more
detailed information on the cyclone’s intensity.

Key Messages:

  1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina
    and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast
    Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the
    southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.
  2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
    the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a
    Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
    portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight.
    These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.




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