Tropical storm elsa July 4th 8am

HURRICANE CENTER: Elsa Unlikely To Impact Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade

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Tropical Storm Elsa July 4th, 20201 at 8 a.m.


BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center’s Sunday morning forecast suggests that Tropical Storm Elsa will have little if any impact on southeast Florida.

The storm shifted again to the west.

Here is the latest from the NHC:

The last pass from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided
interesting and somewhat confusing data on Elsa. The flight-level
winds and SFMR data indicate that Elsa’s intensity remains around 55
kt, but the wind center is located well to the east of the previous
fixes. However, the minimum pressure observed with this new wind
center is a few millibars higher than the fixes that were made
further west last night. The new center is now beneath the
strongest convection, so it seems likely that the mid-level
circulation has built downward to the surface and led to this center
reformation. Elsa does appear a little better organized in
geostationary satellite and microwave images, and it now has a
central dense overcast that is fairly symmetric around the center.
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa shortly, and
the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in understanding
these structural changes and the new intensity information.

Elsa appears to have slowed down, and smoothing through the latest
center reformation yields an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Despite
the changes to the initial motion and position, the overall track
forecast reasoning has not changed much. Elsa is expected to move
west-northwestward and track near or over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
later this morning and then across or just south of the central and
western portions of Cuba later today through early Monday. By early
Monday, however, Elsa should be making a turn to the north as it
moves between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take the storm
near the Florida Keys by late Monday and near or over the west coast
of Florida on Tuesday. After that time, the storm is forecast to
turn northeastward and increase its forward speed as it tracks
across the southeast U.S. and over the western Atlantic on the
northwest side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one, due in part to the initial motion and

The short term intensity forecast is very dependent on Elsa’s exact
track. If the core of the storm moves directly over Jamaica or
Cuba, the small vortex would likely be very disrupted due to the
mountainous islands. However, if the storm manages to pass between
those islands today, some strengthening seems possible given the
improved appearance in satellite images. Weakening is forecast to
occur on Monday due to a combination of land interaction with Cuba
and an increase in vertical wind shear. After the storm moves over
the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, only a small
amount of restrengthening is expected due to continued moderate wind
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and in line with the majority of the typically skillful
intensity aids.

Key Messages:

  1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica
    tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and
    mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman
    Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant
    flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
    Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding
    and minor river flooding will be possible.
  2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
    with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
    later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
    central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.
  3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
    surge, and rainfall impacts beginning late Monday in the Florida
    Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the
    Florida Keys.
  4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
    and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night
    through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas
    Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast
    remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with


INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH…NEAR CUBA
24H 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH…NEAR CUBA
36H 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…NEAR FLORIDA COAST
96H 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
120H 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER


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