Tropical Storm Elsa Florida 5pm Sunday

TROPICAL STORM ELSA: Florida Conditions To Deteriorate As Storm Approaches

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Still A Florida Keys, SW Florida Event…

Tropical Storm Elsa 5 p.m. Sunday, July 4th Advisory.


BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast Elsa as a Florida Keys and SW Florida event, before the storm potentially crosses the state and moves up the coast.

At 5 p.m., here are the watches and warnings in effect.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
    Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
    Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
  • Jamaica
  • The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
    Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
  • The Cuban province of Artemisa
  • The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
  • Florida Bay
  • West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote

This is the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding
features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation.
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55
kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt.
Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly
impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical
shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening.
Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow
by the land masses surrounding the cyclone.

The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should
move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high
pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the
system should accelerate northward to northeastward over
the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No
significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions.

Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south
coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official
forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in
that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance.

Key Messages:

  1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica
    tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides
    will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands
    and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and
    mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida
    Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy
    rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
  2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
    expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern
    Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
    of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread
    into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.
  3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for
    portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical
    storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning
    as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.
  4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
    and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
    Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
    Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER


Paul Saperstein


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