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HURRICANE WARNING FLORIDA: Elsa Targets Florida’s West, Gulf Coasts

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Hurricane Warning for parts of Florida as Elsa nears.

BY: STAFF REPORT | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A special weather advisory was just used by the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Elsa:

Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the Florida Gulf coast. Recent observations from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft
has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it
is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is
not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a
slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a
hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity
forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no
other changes have been made to the official forecast. The NHC
track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC
advisory.

Key Messages:

  1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
    flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western
    Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
    isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
    flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
    of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
    Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
    may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
    flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
    Lowcountry of South Carolina.
  2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
    of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
    Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
  3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
    along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
    Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
    across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread
    northward along much of the west coast of the state through
    Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
  4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
    portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
    conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 25.4N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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