Elsa Florida Georgia South Carolina

HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA: Elsa Heads To Sunshine State, Georgia, South Carolina

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Elsa projected path early Tuesday, July 6th, 2021. (Courtesy National Hurricane Center).

BY: STAFF REPORT | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Elsa is now impacting Florida weather with tropical storm watches and warnings in effect for much of the state’s west coast. Expect rain squalls across South Florida. A hurricane watch is in effect for Florida’s big bend.

The storm is expected to impact Georgia an South Carolina a little later this week.

These are the watches and warnings as of 5 a.m. Tuesday, July 5th, 2021:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

  • West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
    River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
  • The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
  • West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
  • Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Here is the 5 a.m. forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Elsa is now located over the Florida Straits, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts occurring across the Lower and
Middle Keys. Doppler radar data and satellite images indicate that
the core of Elsa is fairly small and has maximum winds of around 50
kt. The outer rainbands associated with Elsa are spreading northward
across southern Florida, and a cluster of deep convection has been
lingering over portions of central and western Cuba. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa later this morning, and
the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the
storm’s intensity and structure.

Elsa is moving to the north-northwest at about 10 kt on the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge that is located over the central
Atlantic. The storm should turn northward later today as it moves
in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the
south-central U.S. This motion should take the core of Elsa
parallel to and likely just offshore of the west coast of Florida
through tonight. After that time, a slight turn to the
north-northeast is forecast as another trough moves across the
north-central U.S. This slight change in heading should bring Elsa
inland across the Big Bend region of Florida by early Wednesday and
then across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday night
through early Friday. Thereafter, the storm is expected to
accelerate and move northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New
England coasts. The NHC track forecast is basically unchanged from
the previous one and lies close to the model consensus aid TVCA.

Now that Elsa is gradually pulling away from Cuba, it will have an
opportunity to strengthen. However, the environmental conditions
are only marginal for the storm to do so. Dry air on the western
side of the cyclone and some westerly shear should prevent rapid
intensification, but the small cyclone will likely strengthen slowly
before it moves inland over the Big Bend of Florida. The GFS model
shows Elsa deepening by 5-10 mb before landfall, and the ECMWF shows
even greater pressure falls. Based on these models, the intensity
forecast is nudged upward and now shows Elsa just below hurricane
force before landfall in Florida. After Elsa moves inland, steady
weakening is forecast, but the system is expected to restrengthen
over the western Atlantic as it transitions into an extratropical

Based on this new forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a
portion of the west-central and Big Bend Florida coast. In addition,
it should be noted that much of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula is expected to see wind, rain, and surge impacts since
that region will be on Elsa’s east side. A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the
South Carolina coast.

Key Messages:

  1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
    flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western Florida
    Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
    flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and
    urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of
    Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia,
    South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result
    in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and
    urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of
    South Carolina.
  2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
    of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
    Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
  3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the
    west-central and Big Bend coast of Florida, where hurricane
    conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical
    storm conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Keys
    and much of the west coast of the state, where a Tropical Storm
    Warning is in effect.
  4. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Georgia coast and
    portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
    conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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