Tropical storm elsa florida

ELSA: Hurricane Center Says Storm Could Regain Strength

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National Hurricane Center Elsa Wednesday, July 7, 2021.

BY: STAFF REPORT | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Elsa is pounding the west cost of Florida as it moves north Wednesday morning. While just a strong Tropical Storm, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm could intensify before it dissipates within five days.

This is the 5 a.m. update Wednesday:

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time
earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite
imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This
decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air
entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and
surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to
near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly
generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data.

After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of
360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until
landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula.
Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has
shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track
lies a little to the right of the various consensus models.

While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there
is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived
re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane
warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of
Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as
it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to
become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes
in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the
guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.

Key Messages:

  1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
    today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
    isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
    Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
    may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
    flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
    Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
    and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
    urban flooding.
  2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
    of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
    effect for that area.
  3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several
    hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a
    Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
    occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will
    continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state
    within the warning area through today.
  4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
    coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
    or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
    coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
    are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by
    Thursday night or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z…DISSIPATED,

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