National Hurricane Center

FLORIDA FRED FRIDAY: Tropical Storm Continues On Predicted Path

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Florida To Feel Effects Friday, Saturday If Fred Remains On Current Course.

National Hurricane Center Update midday Wednesday, August 11th, 2021. (NHC).


BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Fred continues on its projected path of a Florida encounter on Friday or early Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is now urging South Florida to prepare for the potential of heavy rains and potential tropical storm force winds. It’s still early — paths change — but it’s never too early to prepare for potential tropical trouble.

This is the midday advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better
defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane
reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of
up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the
reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb.
Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is
partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has
decreased in coverage since yesterday.

The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours.
However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in
the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred
should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next
72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone
nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is
little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various
consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be
necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola
during the next 12-24 hours.

Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical
shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida
Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear
should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with
land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses
Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges
over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the
trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near
or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear
decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening,
particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.


  1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the
    Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
    northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in
    portions of Cuba by tonight.
  2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
    flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
    for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead
    to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
    rapid river rises across southern Florida.
  3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
    portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
    days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
    is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight.
    Interests in these areas should monitor Fred’s progress and updates
    to the forecast.
  4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
    Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
    spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
    Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida
    should monitor Fred’s progress and check updates to the forecast.


INIT 11/1500Z 18.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND




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