National hurricane center

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED: Storm Disorganized, Heading To Florida

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Still Expected To Become Tropical Storm, Early Saturday Impact In Forecast.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression Fred is “disorganized” as it continues its trek to Florida Thursday morning. South Florida should still feel something Friday and Saturday, but exactly what the something is — or how it will feel — remains unclear.

For new residents to South Florida, this is the time to start paying attention to regular National Hurricane Center updates.

Here is the latest from the NHC:

Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

…DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…
…HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…20.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI…175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
    Gonaives
  • Southeastern Bahamas
  • The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
    Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales
in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of
39 mph (63 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba…1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.

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