National hurricane center

HURRICANE CENTER: Fred Approaches Florida, Second Storm To Form

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National Hurricane Center August 13, 2021.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The latest tracking map from the National Hurricane Center continues to show that Fred is unlikely to directly hit Palm Beach or Broward Counties. While a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Southwest Florida, no advisories are in effect for Palm Beach County or Broward County.

Heavy rain, however, is still likely as the storm passes by.

Forecasters are also watching another system that continues to form. Forecasts for both Fred, and the developing system, follow:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED:

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

…CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…22.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI…505 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1013 MB…29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
  • Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
    Holguin, and Granma
  • The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
    Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas…1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

Developing system, according to National Hurricane Center.

DEVELOPING SYSTEM:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are
becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph. This system is
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night
and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to
spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the
system’s development. Interests in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of this disturbance.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

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