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HURRICANE CENTER: Two Of Three Systems Worth Watching

National hurricane center

Florida…Gulf Coast… Eastern Seaboard: Two Systems May Cause Problems…

National Hurricane Center update August 26, 2021.


BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center is watching three systems, two of which may become issues for the United States mainland. The red “X” in the Gulf may form into a system that affects Texas, Louisiana or other parts of the region, while the yellow “x” in the far Atlantic has the potential to track into an event for Florida or other parts of the Eastern seaboard.

The ovals on the map above indicate a location where a system may form, not necessarily a direction of travel.

This is the early update from the National Hurricane Center.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less
than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to
move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the
Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given
the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be
required later today.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will
be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous
impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of
the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains
large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later
today, if necessary. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  • A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles
    east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to
    be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
    likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
    slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  1. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
    several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
    producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
    of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
    west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical
    Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
    for development by early next week.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.



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