Hurricane Ida To Hit As Category Four, Hurricane Center Watching Five Systems
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — As Hurricane Ida enter the final hours before likely striking Louisiana as a disastrous Category Four hurricane, the National Hurricane Center is now watching multiple waves and systems.
Tropical Depression Tropical Depression 11, a wave rolling off the coast of Africa, and another wave just off the coast of the mid-Atlantic are all being watched by meteorologists.
We start with the latest on Hurricane Ida. The outlook for the additional depressions and systems follows:
Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.
The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than
the previous forecast. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has
also been adjusted slightly. No other changes were made to the
track or intensity forecasts.
The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in
the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data.
Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700
AM CDT) intermediate public advisory.
- Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or
greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area
from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.
- Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves
onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few
hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New
- Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds
will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.
- Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the
central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi,
to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding
impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are
possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and
Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1200Z 28.5N 89.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 17.3N 49.8W at 29/0900
UTC or 690 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving N at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights
are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly E
of the center from 13N-19N between 44W-50W. Some slight strengthening
is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected
thereafter through early this week. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.
Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 34.0N 48.6W at
29/0900 UTC or 1070 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights
are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 31N-
40N between 40W-50W. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the
depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today.
The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 19N southward across
the E Cape Verde Islands, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 08N to 13N between 19W and 25W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 17N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to
16N between 33W and 40W.
A Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N59W to 03N64W,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring across the southern portion of the wave currently moving
A Carribbean tropical wave is near 77W from E Cuba southward to
Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Much drier air at mid and
upper levels is hindering any significant convection near this
A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 05N40W to 07N48W. Aside
from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above,
no other activity is noted at this time.
…GULF OF MEXICO…
See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Ida, which is a major hurricane expected to make landfall over
SE Louisiana today.
Convergent moderate to fresh SE to S winds feeding toward
Hurricane Ida are triggering scattered showers across the E
Gulf, including the Gulf coast of central and S Florida, and the
Keys. Seas are ranging from 5 to 8 ft in the area. Subsidence
along with surface ridging W of Ida is promoting light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, Hurricane Ida will move to 29.1N 90.3W this
afternoon, inland to 30.6N 91.1W Mon morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.0W Mon afternoon, move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.8N 90.0W Tue
morning, inland to 35.4N 87.9W Tue afternoon, and inland to 36.7N
85.2W Wed morning. Ida will move inland over 38.9N 78.9W by early
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea.
Modest convergent SE winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Basin, including W
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are coupling
with southerly wind shear aloft to cause scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the SW basin, N of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present across the S
central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas
of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through
the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend.
Please see Special Features section above for information on
tropical depressions Ten and Eleven.
An upper-level low near 23N43W is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N-27N between 37W-43W. A surface
trough extends southwestward from Tropical Depression Eleven to
near 28N58W. Another trough is analyzed from 32N33W to 29N39W. No
significant convection is noted with these troughs at this time.
A surface ridge meanders west-southwestward from a 1020 mb Azores
high across S of Bermuda to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted N of 22N between 28W and Georgia-
Florida coast. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are
present from 12N to 22N between 51W and the Lesser Antilles.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist near the
Canary Islands N of 21N between the NW African coast and 28W.
Other than near Tropical Depression Ten, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend
southward into the SW N Atlantic through tonight supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will
result in light to gentle variable winds.
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