BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Major Hurricane Larry continues its trek towards the east coast, with no immediate sign of turning back to the east. While several unofficial spaghetti models suggest that will happen, the National Hurricane Center is focused on its current track. Bermuda and the Bahamas could sustain life threatening swells over the next several days.
This is the early morning update from the National Hurricane Center:
Larry’s strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment.
The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several
hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops
are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also
quite distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest
Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14
kt. Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a
subtropical ridge to its northeast. By the middle of next week, a
turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches
the western periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Larry is expected
to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several
days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.
Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for
strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing
along the storm’s track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly
low. The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear
early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more
stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some
weakening. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a
possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can
cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict.
Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major
hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast
is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of
the model guidance.
Significant ocean swells generated by Larry’s growing wind field
are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then
spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
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