Tropical Storm Mindy

MINDY TO BLOW FLORIDA: Tropical Storm Forms, Heads For Sunshine State

Florida hurricane News weather
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Tropical Storm Mindy as of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 8th, 2021.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center just elevated the system growing in the Gulf to Tropical Storm Mindy.

Mindy is expected to hit this evening, bringing rain and wind conditions near the panhandle throughout the evening hours. Once it emerges into the Atlantic on Thursday morning, forecasters expect the storm to grow.

Meantime, Hurricane Larry continues to head to the northeast, away from the United States mainland.

This is the late afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center for September 8th, 2021.

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern 
Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on 
geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 
UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in 
the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. 
The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small 
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these 
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become 
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally 
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These 
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of 
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably 
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last 
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind 
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has 
tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated 
on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.

The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to 
the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement 
that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the 
east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the 
influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the 
eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of 
Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 
hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States 
by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the 
cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes 
vertically shallow.

Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land 
interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 
hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off 
the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase 
above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from 
remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR 
brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in 
the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a 
trough shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in 
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is 
in effect. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 29.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 31.3N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 32.9N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 33.4N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Here is the late afternoon Larry update:

Hurricane Larry update for Wednesday, September 8th, 2021.
Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite
images this afternoon.  The eye remains rather ill-defined but the
hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around
the center.  Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined,
particularly to the northwest.  The current intensity estimate is
held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak
estimates.  Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to 
provide a new intensity estimate.

The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the
northwest, or at about 325/13 kt.  The track forecast philosophy
remains about the same as before.  Larry should move around the
western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of
Bermuda tomorrow.  After that, the hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough
moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near 
or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours.  Then, the 
cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic.  The 
official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus 
solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track.

Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical
shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days.
Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool
significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler
waters, as suggested by the global models.  The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane
strength even after extratropical transition.  In 5 days or less,
the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over
the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the 
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and 
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will 
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and 
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to 
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 28.9N  59.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.6N  60.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 33.3N  61.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 37.0N  61.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 42.0N  58.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 54.0N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z 62.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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