BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center just elevated the system growing in the Gulf to Tropical Storm Mindy.
Mindy is expected to hit this evening, bringing rain and wind conditions near the panhandle throughout the evening hours. Once it emerges into the Atlantic on Thursday morning, forecasters expect the storm to grow.
Meantime, Hurricane Larry continues to head to the northeast, away from the United States mainland.
This is the late afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center for September 8th, 2021.
Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt. The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes vertically shallow. Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 29.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Here is the late afternoon Larry update:
Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined, particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to provide a new intensity estimate. The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track. Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days. Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less, the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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