National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE CENTER: Four Systems Watched As Mindy Hits Florida

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Forecasters Watching Hurricane Larry, Tropical Depression Mindy, Two Waves Expected To Grow…

Busy National Hurricane Center Map Early Thursday Morning.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are now four systems being monitored by the National Hurricane Center as Thursday gets underway.

Tropical Depression Mindy, which developed as a tropical storm late Wednesday afternoon and was downgraded overnight, is now working its way over Florida. Extremely heavy rains are expected in the Southeast on Thursday.

Hurricane Larry continues to churn in the Atlantic. And now two new systems are likely to develop over the next several days.

September is often a busy time for tropical development. The Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through the end of November.

We start with the official outlook for Mindy from the NHC early Thursday:

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight.  Now that
more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has
weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has
become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt.
Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this
afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent
re-strengthening.  In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to
around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any
remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening.  Mindy is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by
day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could
occur sooner.

Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the
previous advisory.  Mindy should continue to move northeastward near
the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving
across the eastern United States today.  Once the trough begins to
lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down
and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance
envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated
NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track
lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean.


Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This
rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small
stream flooding.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of
southeastern Georgia this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 30.8N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 31.9N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  10/0600Z 33.0N  75.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 33.9N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 34.4N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z 34.8N  67.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

This is the outlook for other systems, including Larry, early Thursday.

Hurricane Larry tracking map early Thursday.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Mindy, located 
inland over northern Florida. 

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave over the western Caribbean 
Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on 
Saturday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to 
support some gradual development of the system before it moves 
into mainland Mexico early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa on Saturday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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