National hurricane center

HURRICANE CENTER: Five Systems Forming In Atlantic, Gulf

Florida hurricane News Palm Beach County weather

Three Cyclones Better Than 50 Percent Chance Of Developing



UPDATE: 12:46 p.m. Sunday, September 12, 2021: Tropical Storm Nicholas just formed. Latest here.

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are five systems in various stages of development in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico being watched by meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center.

Three have better than a 50 percent chance of developing into a cyclone within 5 days.

While there is no immediate threat to South Florida, three of the systems may form in regions that are of interest to the lower half of the state.

A system forming in the Gulf of Mexico has a 90 chance of developing into a cyclone over the next five days.

This is the early Sunday morning up from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased 
overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the 
system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of 
northeastern Mexico.  Additional development is possible through the 
middle of next week if the system remains over water, and  interests 
along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the 
progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions 
of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or 
this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
en route to investigate the system this morning. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce 
heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead 
to flash flooding and mudslides.  By late today, heavy rain is 
expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with 
a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through 
the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are 
possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and 
isolated river flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in 
association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for 
development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are 
decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic.  By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level 
winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit 
additional development.  This disturbance could bring locally heavy 
rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far 
northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the 
Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards 
warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some 
tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of 
days.  After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over 
Portugal ending any further development chance. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is 
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the 
middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern 
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

5. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the 
southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a 
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough.  Gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the 
Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



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