Tropical Depression Seventeen Also Forms In Atlantic.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Peter officially formed early this morning.
The system, which remains east of Florida in the Atlantic, is likely to continue in a northwesterly direction before ultimately turning to the north. Based on the current projection, Peter is unlikely to pose a threat to Florida or the United States east coast.
Meantime, Tropical Depression 17 also formed overnight, and is expected to continue on a northwest path.
The first forecast, below, is for Tropical Storm Peter. That is followed by the official Tropical Depression 17 outlook.
Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
This is the official outlook for newly formed Tropical Depression 17.
The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0000 UTC ASCAT wind data of about 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by consensus Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/12 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed track models. Only modest strengthening is expected during the next 48 hour so while the small cyclone remains over 27-28 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear decreases to near 5 kt during that time. However, proximity to dry air is expected prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. By late Tuesday, a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin as the system moves over cooler water and the shear increases from the southwest. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models through 72 hours, and then is lower than the HCCA model on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.8N 28.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
