Tropical storm peter

FLORIDA: Tropical Storm Peter Forms, Likely To Turn

Florida hurricane News weather
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Also Forms In Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Peter.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Peter officially formed early this morning.

The system, which remains east of Florida in the Atlantic, is likely to continue in a northwesterly direction before ultimately turning to the north. Based on the current projection, Peter is unlikely to pose a threat to Florida or the United States east coast.

Meantime, Tropical Depression 17 also formed overnight, and is expected to continue on a northwest path.

Tropical Depression 17.

The first forecast, below, is for Tropical Storm Peter. That is followed by the official Tropical Depression 17 outlook.

Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi
west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special
advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been
adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward
adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The
aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made
to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at
1500 UTC.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.  However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1300Z 17.6N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.2N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.3N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 20.2N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.3N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 22.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 24.3N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 25.8N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 27.7N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

This is the official outlook for newly formed Tropical Depression 17.

The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the 
past few days has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough 
organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. 
The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0000 UTC ASCAT wind data 
of about 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by consensus Dvorak 
satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/12 kt. 
The small cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward 
direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the 
system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a 
subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo 
Verde Islands. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the 
tightly packed track models.

Only modest strengthening is expected during the next 48 hour so 
while the small cyclone remains over 27-28 deg C sea-surface 
temperatures and the vertical wind shear decreases to near 5 kt 
during that time. However, proximity to dry air is expected 
prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. By late 
Tuesday, a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin as the system 
moves over cooler water and the shear increases from the southwest. 
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and 
HCCA intensity consensus models through 72 hours, and then is lower 
than the HCCA model on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 11.8N  28.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.4N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 15.5N  31.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 17.6N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 19.7N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 21.7N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 23.2N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 25.6N  39.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 28.1N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

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