Now Four Systems In The Atlantic.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Monday morning is bringing four systems for the National Hurricane Center to monitor, three are directly east of Florida.
Peter, Rose and a third system — unnamed so far — are all being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The orange X above has a 60 percent chance of developing over the next five days.
The yellow X is what’s left of Odette. It is expected to dissipate today.
Neither Peter nor Rose are expected to directly impact Florida — both are expected to turn to the north or northwest over the next several days. Even so, it’s important to watch these storms.
This is the tropical outlook for early Monday morning, followed by the forecasts for Peter and Rose.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located several hundred miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Tropical Storm Rose:
Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes. Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
Tropical Storm Peter:
Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave satellite data indicate that Peter's center is located just to the west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and SFMR winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when the aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had also increased only slightly to 1006 mb. Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Peter is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models. Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next 24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48 hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30 kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
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