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HURRICANE CENTER: Will It Form? One More System Slowly Growing SE OF Florida

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Backup Hurricane Name List Ready To Go. No Greek Alphabet This Year. After Wanda, Prepare For Adria, Brayden and Caridad.

National Hurricane Center for October 4, 2021.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Whether it’s the last system of the season, or just the last system to receive a pre-determined name remains to be seen, but the yellow X above is certainly being watched by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

While seemingly no threat to South Florida, the area you see on the map above indicates where the tropical wave may grow into a full fledged tropical system. If it does, the next name is Wanda.

But after Wanda, something new will happen. Instead of moving to Greek alphabet, something many found confusing last year, there is a backup list of storm names — starting back with the “A’s.”

Here’s that list: Adria, Brayden, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, Will.

We’re not making it up. Those are truly the names determined by the National Hurricane Center to serve as “backups” if the season stretches past Wanda.

Here is the early morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located over the far North Atlantic, and on Tropical 
Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers continues over 
the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters 
in association with a surface trough.  Upper-level winds are not 
expected to be especially conducive, and any development of 
this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly 
northwestward through late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

And for the weather geeks out there, here is the Tropical Outlook and Discussion:

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane SAM, at 04/0300 UTC, is near 39.3N 
51.2W. Sam is moving toward the NE, or 050 degrees, 17 knots. 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. 
Expect the maximum sea heights to reach 40 feet.  Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 38N to 41N 
between 49W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is 
elsewhere from 24N northward between 47W and 61W. Please, read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction 
Center, at the website 
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1,
 and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression VICTOR, at 04/0300 UTC, is 
near 17.8N 43.0W. Victor is moving toward the northwest, or 305 
degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 
1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with 
gusts to 40 knots. Expect sea heights 12 feet or greater within 
210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the 
center in the SE quadrant...maximum sea heights to 15 feet. 
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 90 nm to 200 
nm of the center in the N quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is elsewhere within 900 nm of the center in the NE 
quadrant. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at the website, 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The OUTLOOK period, for the 24 hours after the initial forecast 
period, for the METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast, consists of: 
the threat of Northeast near gale or gale in the area AGADIR. 
Please, refer to the following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.07
51.030751569878.html, for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 20N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: all the 
nearby precipitation is to the north and south of the monsoon 
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 
300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 20W and 
40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W,from 20N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level trough is in 
the Atlantic Ocean, along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the Bahamas, 
across the eastern half of Cuba, to the western sections of 
Jamaica, to the east central coastal sections of Nicaragua. 
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and 
isolated to widely scattered strong is between 68W and the line 
that extends from SE Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras.
Other isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, to the 
west and northwest of the line from Cuba to Honduras. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N20W, to 07N30W and 05N33W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N33W, to 05N35W 06N39W 06N50W and 07N56W. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 
20W and 40W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south of the 
monsoon trough, and within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 
40W westward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is 
from 10N to 11N between 60W and 62W, surrounding the northern 
half of Trinidad and nearby waters.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is inland, passing through east Texas, to 
south central Texas, to the Texas Big Bend. A north-to-south 
oriented surface trough is along 95W/96W, from 26N southward to 
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Gulf of 
Mexico from 92W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is 
elsewhere, from 92W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A surface 
ridge passes through SE Georgia, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate E winds are in the SE Gulf and offshore the Yucatan 
Peninsula, while weaker winds prevail elsewhere. The sea heights 
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, with the comparatively highest seas 
in the eastern part of the Gulf waters.

A weak ridge of high pressure north of the Gulf along 33N will 
move eastward through Tue, supporting tranquil conditions across 
all but the southeast sections of the basin. A weak cold front 
will move across the Gulf on Mon and Tue, with little 
enhancement of the winds and seas, except across the western Bay 
of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 71W/72W,from 20N southward, moving W 10 
to 15 knots. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, 
along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the Bahamas, across the eastern 
half of Cuba, to the western sections of Jamaica, to the east 
central coastal sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely 
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely 
scattered strong is between 68W and the line that extends from 
SE Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras. Other isolated moderate to 
locally strong is elsewhere, to the west and northwest of the 
line from Cuba to Honduras. 

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon 
trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa 
Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: 
isolated to widely scattered moderate, to locally strong covers 
the area that is from 15N southward from 74W westward. 

Fresh to locally strong trade winds cover the eastern and 
central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Generally moderate trade 
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet 
in the central and eastern sections, and from 3 feet to 5 feet 
in the western and southwestern sections. 

High pressure will build north of the area. This will increase 
the winds and seas across the NE and central Caribbean Sea Mon 
and Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds then will persist across 
the south central Caribbean through Thu. Moderate N to NE swell 
will affect the tropical Atlc waters through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the 
Bahamas, across the eastern half of Cuba, to the western 
sections of Jamaica, to the east central coastal sections of 
Nicaragua. A surface trough curves along 25N67W 23N71W, to 
northern Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong covers the waters that are from 20N to 31N 
between 63W and 77W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 
71W/72W, from 20N southward. Upper level winds are not expected 
to be especially conducive, and any development of this system 
should be slow to occur, while it moves slowly northwestward 
through late this week.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410 
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going 
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued 
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A broad surface ridge near the Azores covers most of the NE 
Atlantic Ocean. The pressure gradient between the ridge, and 
lower pressures in South America, results in generally fresh 
trade winds from 22N southward between 45W and the Lesser 
Antilles. The fastest wind speeds are in the waters that are 
near the Windward Islands. A similar pressure gradient occurs in 
the NE Atlantic Ocean between the ridge and lower pressures of 
NW Africa. Expect fresh to locally strong NE winds from 20N 
northward from 28W eastward. The comparatively fastest wind 
speeds are in the waters that surround the Canary Islands and 
near the coast of NW Africa. Mainly moderate winds are in the 
rest of the basin. Expect sea heights that range from 5 feet to 
8 feet, elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, away from 
Hurricane Sam and Tropical Depression Victor.

Swells generated from Hurricane Sam, centered well NE of the 
area, will prevail across the area waters through Mon, and then 
continue across the waters E of 70W through Wed. High pressure 
along the mid Atlc coast will drift slowly eastward through mid 
week. This will produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 
23N and east of the Bahamas through Tue before spreading into 
the southeast Bahamas. Active weather is expected to develop 
across the waters E of 75W and NE the Bahamas Mon night through 
Tuesday, as a surface trough develops across the SE Bahamas and 
shifts slowly NW.

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