National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE CENTER WATCHING NEW WAVE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA

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Wave Is “Vigorous,” According To Forecasters.

National Hurricane Center watching new wave Southeast of Florida.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center is watching another new system — this one is marked by the yellow X above, southeast of Florida.

It’s much too early to know where the system may go, if anywhere. Initial projections suggest that if the system forms, it will follow the path of many other this year as it curves away from the United States mainland.

The National Hurricane Center is calling the wave “Vigorous.”

We are publishing both the forecast and the tropical discussion — both accurate as of late Sunday afternoon on October 10th, 2021. The Atlantic Hurricane Season continues until the end of November.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association 
with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles 
south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today 
found that the system was still producing a small area of 
gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. 
However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to 
decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low 
is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center 
remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this 
afternoon and tonight.  Interests in that area should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National 
Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of 
development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty 
winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North 
Carolina during the next day or so.  Additional information on this 
low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous 
tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward 
Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and 
thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development 
of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph 
over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early 
Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system.  Regardless of development, the system will produce 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the 
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

This is the Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N with axis near 51W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Numeorous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is from 07N to 15N between 46W and 54W. Recent satellite-derived 
surface wind data show fresh to near gale force winds associated 
with this wave located about 430 nmi ESE of the Windward Islands. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive 
for some additional development of this system while it moves WNW 
over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach 
the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early 
Tuesday. Regardless of development, the system will produce 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the 
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean S of 19N with axis near
64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 14N to 18N between 58W and 64W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 18N to 22N between 57W and
63W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to near gale force
winds E of the wave axis affecting the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near
78W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and fresh to locally
strong winds are in the SW Caribbean, S of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W
to 08N16W. The ITCZ begins near 08N23W and continues along 06N36W
to 08N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N
between 08W and 18W, and from 04N to 10N between 30W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the eastern half of the gulf
with light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1-2 ft. Over the
western half of the basin, low pressure building over Texas and
northern Mexico, extending over the waters W of 90W continue to
support moderate to fresh SE winds W of 93W. Earlier scatterometer
data showed fresh to locally strong SE winds over Texas adjacent
waters where the pressure gradient tightens between the low center
over Texas and high pressure over the SE CONUS.  

Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail over the western Gulf 
between the ridge and lower pressure over the Southern Plains and 
northern Mexico. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to persist
elsewhere. Little change is expected through Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin, one over the W
Caribbean and another one just W of the Lesser Antilles. The
wave over the E basin is supporting heavy showers and windy
conditions over the Leeward Islands. An upper trough north of 
Puerto Rico support isolated showers across the Island and
adjacent waters. Winds and seas will diminish near the wave as it
move into the central Caribbean through mid week, and into the 
western Caribbean by Thu. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through mid week.
Otherwise, another tropical wave will approach the Lesser 
Antilles late on Mon. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for 
more details. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough reaches from low pressure off the Carolinas to the 
eastern Straits of Florida. Scattered thunderstorms are active 
mainly west of 70W, ahead of the trough, with numerous 
thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. The trough and associated
weather will move little through Mon, then drift east and weaken 
through mid week. Farther south, a tropical wave moving through 
the eastern Caribbean will bring fresh to strong winds and 
occasionally rough seas south of 22N through late Mon. Elsewhere, 
generally moderate winds and seas will persist through mid week.

Otherwise, a cold front starts to dip into the north central Atlc
waters extending from 31N43W to 31N56W. Ahead of the front, a
trough extends from 31N35W to 27N42W. Scattered showers are
associated with these features.

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