HURRICANE: Forecasters Now Say 80 Percent Formation Chance

Florida hurricane News Palm Beach County weather

Florida In Development Zone As Hurricane Season Starts…

National Hurricane Center map mid-day Wednesday, June 1, 2022.

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center now says there is an 80 percent chance that a system forms in the red area that you see in the map above. We stress the red oval is the area of development, not necessarily a direction of travel. If you stop reading now, know that heavy rain may be heading our way over the weekend.

From the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:  A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the  Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized 

showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual  development is forecast and this system is likely to become a 

tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the  northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during  the next day or two.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 

rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during  the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida,  and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the 

Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas: A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. 

Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and  significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves  generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from 

 he southeastern United States.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.


Paul Saperstein


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