Forecasters Still Predict 3-5 Major Hurricanes This Season…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Peak Hurricane Season is rapidly approaching, but all remains relatively calm in the Atlantic and Gulf, with the notable exception of a small system that is expected to bring heavy rain to Texas.
Forecasters, however, are sticking with their “Above Average” forecast for the hurricane season, saying 14-20 named storms — including 3 to 5 major hurricanes — are expected before the season ends in November.
There are currently several tropical waves being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, which issued this official outlook on Saturday:
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022:
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 22W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is east of the wave axis near 15N20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from n12N to 20N between 18W and 23W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 24N southward, moving W at 15 kt. A large plume of atmospheric moisture accompanies this wave between 52W and 57W, as noted in Precipitable Water imagery, while Saharan Air dominates the environment to its east. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 50W and 58W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 19N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 64W and 66W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 81W from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 78W and 83W.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 11N26W to 11N40W. The ITCZ is not present at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 15W and 42W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad 1013 mb low is analyzed off of the Texas coast near 28N94W with a trough extending from the central Louisiana coast near 29N92W to the south Texas coast near 25N97W. Low to middle level cyclonic turning across the NW Gulf continues to produce moisture convergence. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is noted from 21N to 29N between 91W and 97W. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are noted along this broad low with light winds elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 3 ft across the basin.
For the broad low in the NW Gulf, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since early this morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. However, surface pressures remain high and any additional development should be slow to occur while the system moves slowly west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast later today and tonight. The disturbance is forecast to move inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. Formation chances remain low within the next 48 hours and next 5 days.
For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to central Mexico. It will strengthen a bit while sinking southward to near 28N Sun through Tue. Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the central and NE Gulf through Sun.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti in addition to offshore Honduras and Nicaragua due to the influences of upper-level troughing and a tropical wave in the area. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. The latest ASCAT depicts light to gentle winds across the basin with moderate winds in the central basin with seas ranging 3-5 ft.
For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift southward and weaken through early next week. Moderate trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Mon, then increase to fresh by Tue. A broad surface trough accompanying a tropical wave over the western Atlantic will move across the Lesser Antilles this evening, the eastern Caribbean early Sun through early Mon, then the central Caribbean Mon through late Wed. Trade winds will strengthen late Tue through Wed as high pressure repositions near 27N65W.
A surface ridge axis extends from a 1024 mb high pressure near 36N39W to 31N62W to a 1017 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf near 30N86W. A trough is noted off the Florida coast from 30N76W to 28N79W with scattered moderate convection across the SW N Atlantic from 24N to 31N between 69W and 81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the central Atlantic from 25N to 31N between 45W and 53W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds across the central and eastern Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft.
For the forecast W of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to northern Florida along 29N, and will weaken and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary moving off the SE U. S coast stalls just N of the area. Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken to gentle to moderate later this afternoon and change little through Wed. A broad tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles through this evening, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas east these islands tonight through early Mon. A cold front will move over the waters northeast of NE Florida late Tue, then stall and weaken through Wed night.
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