TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORMS, NO THREAT TO LAND FOR NOW

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OTHER SYSTEMS REMAIN EAST OF FLORIDA, GROWING…

Tropical Storm Danielle formed Thursday. (National Hurricane Center).

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Danielle formed Thursday. It is not expected to threaten Florida, or the U.S. Mainland. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters. Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle, located about 950 miles west of the Azores.

East of the Leeward Islands: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased in coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area of low pressure is located over and to the northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The associated shower activity has diminished through the day. There is still some chance for the system to become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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