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Another System Near Florida Still Closely Watched…

Danielle is now a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.


UPDATED 8 p.m. Friday, September 2, 2022

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Hurricane Danielle is expected to intensify over the next few days after officially earning hurricane status earlier today. Originally predicted to max out with 100 m.p.h. winds, the new maximum wind speed is down to 85 miles per hour. Danielle’s winds should hit that force over the weekend. Two other systems remain under close watch east of Florida. The following is the 9 p.m. GMT which is 5 p.m. ET. The official NHC discussion follows the Danielle update.

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently, infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory.

Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA).

The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By 72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day 5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and begin the process of extratropical transition.


INIT 02/2100Z 37.9N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 38.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 38.3N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 39.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 39.6N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 41.5N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 43.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Danielle, located about 900 miles west of the Azores.

  1. East of the Leeward Islands: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier this afternoon indicated that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has become better defined today, and the plane reported that surface pressures have fallen a bit. If the showers and thunderstorms associated with the low persist through the evening, the system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm as early as tonight.

The disturbance is expected to move generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph, passing near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of the system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.


Paul Saperstein


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