Earl Joins What Is AgainTropical StormDanielle. Now Two Named Systems In Atlantic…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATED 5:45 p.m. Saturday, September 3, 2022
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Earl formed early Saturday morning east of Florida. The initial track map indicates the system will trek towards the United States east coast before changing course and heading back out to sea. Landfall for Earl is not expected. See the map, above.
The system is taking a similar path as Hurricane Danielle which is much further north. Danielle, as well, is not expected to strike land.
This is the Saturday evening Earl advisory from the National Hurricane Center, followed by the advisory for what has been downgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle.
Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022
Earl has strengthened this afternoon. Satellite data indicate the previously exposed low-level center of the cyclone has been drawn underneath an area of deep convection, with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that recently investigated the storm reported max flight-level (925 mb) winds of 56 kt. This would support surface winds between 40 and 45 kt using a standard reduction factor. Based on these data, the cyclone’s improved satellite structure, and falling surface pressures throughout the day, the initial intensity of Earl is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.
The cyclone has strengthened some today despite facing moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear. The shear is forecast to persist or even increase during the next couple of days, so some fluctuation in intensity is possible if the deep convection gets stripped away and the center becomes exposed again. But, sea-surface temperatures greater than 29C should continue to support convective development, and the overall trend in the latest intensity guidance favors at least slow strengthening into early next week. Then, the models suggest that favorable interaction with an upper-level trough over the warm waters of the western Atlantic will promote additional strengthening, along with a broadening of the wind field. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been raised closer to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and it now brings Earl up to hurricane strength at days 4-5.
The initial motion of Earl is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The general forecast track reasoning has not changed. Earl is expected to slow down as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the next couple of days. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should allow the cyclone to gradually turn northward early next week, then move northeastward as it becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast and lies slightly to the left of the HCCA and TVCA aids.
Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these locations through Sunday.
- Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U. S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico.
- Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.
Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022
Danielle’s cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours with banding features gaining symmetry around the center. However, there are still some dry slots disrupting the system’s inner core. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt, but Danielle could become a hurricane again soon. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago was helpful in adjusting the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii.
The storm has been moving a little faster to the west at 5 kt and is back over the same location where it was on Thursday. A continued slow westward motion is expected into Sunday as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast by Sunday night followed by a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada approaches Danielle. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left in the short term, but ends up to the east of the previous track at 96 and 120 h, trending toward the latest consensus aids.
Danielle is expected to gradually pull away from its own cool SST wake, and since the atmospheric conditions appear generally favorable, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, however, sharply cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in vertical wind shear should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. Danielle is expected to become fully extratropical by day 5 when it merges with the approaching trough and moves over SSTs cooler than 20C. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and remains in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
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