TWO SYSTEMS EAST OF FLORIDA…TROPICS GETTING BUSY…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATED: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, September 4, 2022
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Danielle is again a hurricane, Earl remains a tropical storm, and now there is a new tropical wave far east of Florida being watched by the National Hurricane Center.
That wave is discussed in the Hurricane Center’s “tropical outlook,” below, followed by the forecasts for both Danielle and Earl. We note that at this point, neither Danielle nor Earl are expected to directly impact the United States mainland.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Danielle, located about 1000 miles west of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Earl, located about 80 miles north of the Virgin Islands.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a tropical wave located just off the west African coast. An area of low pressure could form later this week and subsequent gradual development is possible as this system moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and WSR-88D radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that Earl remains disorganized due to ongoing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and that the center is rather tricky to locate. One vorticity center, associated with a fresh convective burst, is located just north of the Virgin Islands. However, TAFB and SAB fixed on another cloud area farther north, while the radar data suggests another vorticity center in the deep convection to the northeast of the Virgin Islands. The advisory position is a mean center between these features and is a little north of the new burst. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The storm has slowed its forward motion, which is now 285/7 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that a break will form in the subtropical ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest of Earl beginning later today. This should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward during the next 12-24 h, with a northward motion likely from 24-72 h and a north-northeastward motion from 72-120 h. The track models are in good agreement on the general direction of motion. However, while the GFS is slower than its previous forecast it is still faster than the rest of the guidance. The new forecast track is nudged to the right of the previous forecast based on the overall shift of the guidance envelope. During the first 72 h, it is in best agreement with the GFS and UKMET ensemble means, and after that time it lies close to the various consensus models.
The ongoing shear is expected to continue through at least the next 72 h, and thus only gradual strengthening is likely during this time as Earl moves over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist environment. After that time, the cyclone could interact with the aforementioned trough in such a way to leave Earl in a more favorable environment for intensification, and the dynamical models forecast significant strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and for the first 72 h it is close to the bulk of the intensity guidance. After it time, the forecast is below that of most of the guidance due to the uncertainty of how favorable the environment will be.
Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these locations through tonight.
- Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands, U. S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible in Puerto Rico.
- Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and gusty winds, especially in squalls, area possible on those islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 19.5N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.1N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 24.0N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 28.5N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 500 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022
There has been little overall change in the satellite presentation of Danielle overnight. Curved convective bands wrap around the center, with a large ragged banded eye-like feature evident at times. There is a large range in the satellite intensity estimates this morning with objective estimates much lower than the subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the SAB Dvorak estimate increased to T4.5 (77 kt) at 06Z, given the general steady state of the system’s organization since the previous advisory, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, which is a blend of the various estimates and is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite classification.
Danielle is forecast to remain over SSTs of around 27C and in a low shear environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. As a result, most of the intensity guidance calls for some intensification during that time, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After that time, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause slow weakening. By days 4 and 5, increasing shear and the system’s transition into a post-tropical cyclone are likely to cause additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN and HFIP corrected consensus models.
The hurricane has been meandering overnight but a slow northward motion should begin this morning. Danielle is forecast to gradually accelerate to the northeast beginning on Monday as deep-layer trough moves over eastern Canada. By 72 hours, the storm should turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The latest dynamical model guidance predicts a slightly faster motion over much of the forecast period, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new forecast is not as fast as the TCVA consensus model, therefore future modifications regarding the forward speed of the cyclone may be required.
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