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Tropical Wave May Take Days To Develop As Fiona Continues Northward Trek As Hurricane.

The tropical wave beneath Fiona is new and is now being tracked by the National Hurricane Center. (NHC).


UPDATED: 5:30 p.m. Monday, September 19, 2022

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A new tropical wave southeast of Florida is being tracked by the National Hurricane Center. It is very early in its existence so the development chance over five days is just 20 percent. Even so, its location — and direction of travel — suggest it’s one to watch.

The wave formed as Hurricane Fiona continues to head north with life-threatening winds and rain. We are starting with the new tropical wave outlook. That is followed, below, by the afternoon update on Hurricane Fiona.

NHC Fiona September 19 2022
Hurricane Fiona forecast track as of Monday afternoon. (National Hurricane Center).

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic.

  1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little since yesterday evening in association with an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Some slow development, however, is possible during the next couple of days before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week. The system should generally move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
  1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while the system approaches the Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The hurricane is beginning to move away from the Dominican Republic and over the warm waters of the Atlantic north of Hispaniola.
Fiona’s cloud pattern is well organized and its inner core is becoming better defined with very cold cloud tops becoming concentrated near the eye. Upper-level outflow is strong over most of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 85 kt which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and assess its structure and intensity.

Fiona continues to move northwestward, at a slightly faster forward speed, or at about 325/9 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous few advisory packages.
During the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to gradually turn toward the north while moving along the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone. In 3-5 days, Fiona should turn toward the north-northeast and accelerate in response to a vigorous mid-tropospheric trough near the northeast coast of the United States.

Global model forecasts continue to show moderate upper-level west-southwesterly flow over Fiona while it moves over the southwestern Atlantic early this week. Although this flow should cause some shear over the hurricane during the next couple of days, the intensity guidance models indicate that this shear will not be strong enough to prevent further intensification. The official intensity forecast has been increased a little more for this advisory and is in good agreement with the latest LGEM guidance. It now appears that Fiona will become a major hurricane sooner than previously forecast.

Near the end of the forecast period, as the system becomes more embedded within the mid-latitude flow and interacts with the strong mid-tropospheric trough, it should be making the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. This is also suggested by the latest FSU cyclone phases analyses.

Key Messages:

  1. Heavy rains from the trailing bands of Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through this evening, and across the eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rains could produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico and eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.
  2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
  3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 22.9N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 24.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 26.0N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 28.2N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 33.3N 65.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 45.0N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH


Paul Saperstein


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