NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM GROWING, COULD BE FLORIDA-BOUND

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VERY EARLY BUT WORTH WATCHING. TWO WAVES MAY VISIT FLORIDA. FIONA STILL STRONG. FIVE SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED…

There are now five systems monitored by the National Hurricane Center, including the Red X and the yellow X above which are the first to appear to be on a general trajectory that could include Florida. (National Hurricane Center).

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The Red “x” and oval above, and the new tropical wave marked by the yellow “x” and yellow oval, may become the first systems to impact Florida, but it is much too early to know for sure. There is NO need to panic at this point. Some models show the “red x” either impacting the southern part of the Florida peninsula or moving into the Gulf and then impacting Florida’s west coast next week. It has a 90 percent chance of development. The yellow X above — very far away — is a tropical wave with a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. While an oval only indicates where a system may form, it is notable that the National Hurricane Center says this wave is moving west-northwest, and not due north as many others have this season. It is another system to watch at this point, and nothing more.

Meantime, Fiona is Bermuda-bound with 140 mph winds. We start with the Tropical Outlook which discusses the tropical waves. The Fiona forecast follows. Gaston remains no threat to the United States mainland.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

  1. Western Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to survey the system this evening.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
  1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
  1. East Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Hurricane Fiona tracking map, courtesy National Hurricane Center.

Fiona continues to have a fairly impressive presentation on satellite images, although the eye has become partially cloud- filled. The central convection continues to have very cold cloud tops to near -80 deg C, and the Central Dense Overcast is surrounded by numerous banding features, especially over the eastern semicircle. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The current intensity is held at 115 kt, i.e. Category 4, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The hurricane should remain over warm waters for the next 48 hours, and in a moist and unstable air mass. Some strengthening is still possible within the next day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles could cause some intensity fluctuations, but these are difficult to predict. Fiona is expected to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeastern United States coast in around 60 hours. This interaction should lead to the system transforming into an intense extratropical cyclone, with hurricane-force winds, before it reaches Atlantic Canada.

Fiona’s motion is beginning to show signs of a turn toward the north-northeast as the eye has been leaning toward the right over the past few hours. The initial motion is just east of north or about 010/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast or its reasoning. During the next 12 to 24 hours, the hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area. Thereafter, Fiona is forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward in the flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA, respectively.

Based on an earlier ASCAT overpass, the wind radii have been expanded. The model guidance indicates that Fiona will grow even larger in size during the next few days.

Key Messages:

  1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions are expected, on Bermuda by late tomorrow.
  2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.6N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 27.0N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 29.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 43.5N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 52.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 60.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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