HURRICANE FIONA TO BATTER BERMUDA… GASTON ALIVE… OTHER SYSTEMS DEVELOPING…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) (5:15 p.m.)– The developing system marked by the “red x” and oval below may be Florida’s first hit this Hurricane Season. While the National Hurricane Center is not yet officially tracking what is known as Invest 98L, several computer models suggest that the system will impact Florida in one way or another. TropicalTidbits.com is displaying a combination map of many available models. You can see what the models are predicting, above.
Meantime, another tropical wave continues to develop southeast of Florida, as Fiona and Gaston continue to churn. Another wave is moving off of Africa’s coast.
We start with the tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of Thursday afternoon. The Hurricane Fiona advisories follow.
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of the central Azores.
- Southeastern Caribbean Sea: Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening. Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
- East Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022
The satellite presentation of Fiona has recovered somewhat since this morning with the eye becoming a little better defined, and a ring of convection with cloud tops of -65 to-70 degrees surrounding the center. There is a fairly large spread in the subjective and objective satellite estimates, which range from 102 kt to 124 kt. The initial wind speed remains near the mid point of estimates at 115 kt, which was supported by the earlier aircraft reconnaissance data. The next reconnaissance flight is scheduled into the hurricane this evening.
The hurricane continues to accelerate north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Fiona is forecast to continue to accelerate north-northeastward tonight, with the hurricane making its closest approach to Bermuda overnight or early tomorrow. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move off the coast of the northeastern United States should cause Fiona to turn northward toward Atlantic Canada. The dynamic models are in good agreement that the cyclone will pass over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and then move more slowly northward over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador over the weekend. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast lies near the center of the model envelope.
Fiona is expected to remain in a low shear environment and over warm water for the next 12-24 hours. Therefore, little change in intensity is expected during that time. After 24 hours, the system will interact with the aforementioned trough, and Fiona is forecast to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Friday night. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the weekend while the system moves northward over Newfoundland and Labrador.
The cyclone is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Atlantic Canada, and earlier ASCAT data showed that the tropical-storm-force winds have already expanded over the eastern portion of the storm.
The initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning.
- Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada.
- Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 30.4N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 37.8N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 43.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 47.3N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 50.4N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z 53.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 60.9N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 64.3N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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