Don’t Be Fooled By Current Calm. It May Get Active Over The Next Several Weeks.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2023 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center just raised the forecast for the second half of hurricane season to “above average,” suggesting that conditions are conducive for significant activity over the next few months. The new prediction calls for 14-21 named storms, with 6-11 becoming hurricanes, and 2-5 becoming major hurricanes.
The update brings the NOAA forecast largely into sync with the respected Colorado State University forecast released a few weeks earlier. It also calls for an above-normal season.
While things are quiet now, “peak hurricane” season tends to start in early September and continue well into October. Factors causing the prediction upgrade: El Niño and the exceptionally warm ocean temperatures. Whether the full effect of El Niño develops in early September or late September will have a direct impact on how many storms form.
There have been five storms so far this year, with four receiving names and one logged as “unnamed storm.” The next name is Emily, followed by Franklin and Gert. We remind those new to Florida who may think the worst is behind us that Hurricane Andrew struck in mid-August of 1992 — and that was an “A” storm.
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