BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2023 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There is a new tropical storm east of Florida. Tropical Storm Jose was officially named at 5 a.m. Thursday and is not expected to threaten land. it is one of five systems being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, which remains focused on Idalia. Idalia Thursday is over the Atlantic, where at least one model suggests it may loop back to the eastern United States next week.
We start with Jose:
Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023
Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better
organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the
bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more
evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave
pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC.
Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the
latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the
depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial
intensity this advisory.
Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple
of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now
estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm’s previous lack of motion
was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging
both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in
place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin
approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose
is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in
the larger hurricane’s circulation. The track guidance is in good
agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an
update of the previous advisory.
Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely
to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently
low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and
Franklin’s outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite
direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by
Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows this solution occuring in 48 hours.
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.6N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Idalia.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 78.0 West. Idalia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. An
eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin later
today and continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Idalia will just offshore of the coast of North Carolina
today. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but some gradual
weakening could occur Friday and Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC…2-4 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers…2-4 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers…2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC…1-3 ft
Cape Fear, NC to Beaufort Inlet, NC…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina,
and will continue to spread across coastal sections of North
Carolina today.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima up to 6 inches across coastal
North Carolina through this afternoon. This rainfall will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with
considerable impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia along the eastern Gulf coast will
continue to subside today. Swells will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible through early this
morning across coastal North Carolina.
