BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Debby is not done yet. After pounding the Florida Panhandle, it’s set to deluge the southeast over the next day or so, and then potentially cause havoc from Washington, D.C. through New England. Airline travel is again expected to again be challenging for the remainder of the week. The weather may be fine in Florida, but if it’s not where your plane is originating, you are unlikely to get where you’re going.
Here’s the Debby update for Tuesday evening. We’re following this report with an update on the “yellow x” you see on the map. It is expected to move towards Mexico.
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024
Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory.
Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday. After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern and northeastern U. S. ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and faster than the previous one.
Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday, some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream, re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.
Key Messages:
- Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and northern New England through Saturday.
- Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U. S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.
- A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
**OTHER SYSTEM**
A new eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 17N to 06N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is analyzed from 15N to 07N between 17W and 23W.
A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 16N southward to about 04N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is depicted near this wave generally between 10N and 06N between 38W and 44W.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from the Mona Passage to Venezuela, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of this wave along with moderate to fresh winds. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves W over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week, as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea or into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.
