Tropical Storm Kirk Churns In Atlantic, Possible Gulf Trouble.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Kirk formed overnight, there’s trouble brewing again in the Gulf, and Joyce is dissipating, but it’s the system that just rolled off the African coast that deserves your attention. Here are notable highlights from the National Hurricane Center’s outlook and forecast:
RED X CLOSEST TO AFRICA — Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U. S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
TROPICAL STORM KIRK (Expected to turn away from U.S.): Kirk is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or so while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north over the central Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first couple days of the forecast, with a bit of spread noted thereafter. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous official forecast through 72 h, and west of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCA. Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speeds:
INIT 01/0900Z 14.9N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
REMNANTS OF JOYCE: Joyce is dissipating and poses no threat to land.
