The New System Joins Hurricane Rafael Now Expected To Become Near Major Hurricane…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATE AT 5:12 p.m. — We are publishing the “public advisory” from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Rafael. Information about the new system east of Florida follows:
BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
… RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA…
… BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC… INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…22.6N 82.7W ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT… NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Havana International Airport.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Dry Tortugas…1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys…1-2 ft
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center Wednesday is tracking a new system east of Florida that is likely to develop in the area marked in yellow on the map above. Ovals indicate where a system is likely to form and not necessarily a direction of travel. The yellow oval is very close to Florida. The system is developing as Hurricane Rafael continues a trek north in the Gulf and warnings are in effect for the Keys. Here’s what the NHC is saying Wednesday:
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rafael, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.
SYSTEM EAST OF FLORIDA:
Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low-pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane’s Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael’s inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.
Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
- Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.
- It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
- Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
