RED OVAL ON MAP. “CHANCES OF WIND, RAIN, STORM SURGE…”
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center Friday morning says the developing system east of Florida — known now as 94L — is likely to become a tropical depression within days if not hours. “Spaghetti Models” then show it tracking anywhere from South Florida to the Carolinas. Early Friday, forecasters with the NHC say there is tremendous “uncertainty” with the track guidance for now. Here is the Friday morning update from the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, over of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Humberto, over the subtropical central Atlantic.
Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave today when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas later today or over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and likely to spread across the Bahamas an eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system. While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U. S. coast during the next several days are increasing. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
