BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Colorado State University hurricane researchers on Wednesday reduced their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the second time this summer, now predicting a “well below-normal” season as a strengthening El Niño chokes off storm development.
The updated forecast shared with BocaNewsNow.com calls for nine named storms, four hurricanes and just one major hurricane for the rest of the season. That’s roughly half of the 1991-2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes. CSU also slashed its outlook for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of a storm’s destructive wind and surge potential, to 50 from a long-term average of 123.
Researchers said a moderate El Niño is expected to strengthen into a powerful El Niño by the peak of hurricane season, driving high levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic that tend to tear apart developing storms. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic remain near their long-term averages, according to CSU, but the El Niño pattern is expected to dominate the season’s overall activity.
The forecast also lowers the probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. CSU issued its initial 2026 outlook April 9 and updated it June 10 before Wednesday’s revision. A final update is scheduled for August 5.
Despite the reduced numbers, CSU researchers repeated their standard caution: it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make a season memorable for the people it hits, and coastal residents should prepare thoroughly regardless of the forecast.
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