BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Colorado State University hurricane researchers are sticking with their call for a well below-average Atlantic hurricane season, holding to an updated 2026 forecast that points to a strong El Niño as the main reason storms should stay in check.
CSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) team, part of the school’s Department of Atmospheric Science, now predicts nine named storms this season, four of which are expected to become hurricanes and one a major hurricane — Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale. That count includes Arthur and Bertha, the two storms that have already formed this year. All three numbers fall well short of the long-term seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The forecast leans heavily on El Niño, a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño tends to crank up upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic, and that translates into stronger vertical wind shear — the kind that tears apart developing storms or keeps them from forming in the first place. The stronger the El Niño, forecasters say, the bigger that wind-shear effect tends to be. And it’s already showing up: wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic ran extremely high in July, a sign El Niño is already impacting tropical circulation. There’s still some uncertainty about exactly how strong El Niño will get, but CSU researchers say it’s almost certain a strong event will hold through the rest of hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean have warmed a bit over the past couple of months, and on their own, those slightly-above-normal waters would typically point toward a busier hurricane season. But CSU forecasters say the powerful El Niño is expected to overpower that warming. The bottom line, they say: shear should stay well above normal and significantly suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, regardless of the modest ocean warmth.
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