HURRICANE CENTER: New System East Of Florida As Tropical Storm Fay Moves

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Fay continues to move in the Atlantic as a new system may be developing off the coast of Africa. Here’s a look at the new system and an update on Tropical Storm Fay — all from the National Hurricane Center for Monday, September 21, 2026:

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off western Africa by Wednesday. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves near the Cabo Verde Islands later this week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.

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Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay’s deep convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours.

Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  21/1500Z 33.3N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 32.6N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 31.6N  33.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 30.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 30.0N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  60H  24/0000Z 29.4N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  24/1200Z 29.3N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  25/1200Z 29.3N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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