Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms Off Mid-Atlantic Coast, Gale Winds Possible Near Bahamas

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There’s a newly named system in the Atlantic, and there’s a lot happening at the end of what has been a very quiet hurricane season. Here’s the update from the NHC:

Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday. Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes.

Forecast Positions and Max Winds

Time	Date/Time (UTC)	Position	Max Winds	Status
INIT	21/2100Z	37.4N 69.5W	55 KT / 65 MPH	SUBTROPICAL
12H	22/0600Z	38.1N 69.0W	60 KT / 70 MPH	SUBTROPICAL
24H	22/1800Z	39.6N 66.2W	65 KT / 75 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H	23/0600Z	41.4N 61.6W	70 KT / 80 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H	23/1800Z	43.3N 56.9W	60 KT / 70 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H	24/0600Z	44.1N 53.5W	50 KT / 60 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H	24/1800Z	44.4N 50.4W	45 KT / 50 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H	25/1800Z	43.5N 37.5W	40 KT / 45 MPH	POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H	26/1800Z	—	—	DISSIPATED

Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 15W and 30W.

Gulf of Mexico

A trough is in the W Gulf from near Corpus Cristi to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the trough south of 22N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong to near- gale winds are west of the trough and south of 21N, where rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United States has a ridge extending into the Gulf region. This system supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds, with the exception of strong to near-gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf. The latter winds will persist through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the SE Gulf on Sun.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, across the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail west of the front. To the east, a 1011 mb low is centered near 29N57W, with a surface trough extending NW to SE through the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east of the trough from 23N to 30N between 42W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, are east of the trough from 23N to 31N between 50W and 55W. Another trough extends from 31N23W to 22N23W. No significant convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and moderate seas are N of 24N on either side of the trough between 14W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place.

BocaNewsNow.com changes all “Gulf Of America” references to “Gulf of Mexico,” the internationally accepted name. We do however acknowledge that some people in some places do believe that an American president has the power to rename bodies of water.