BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Forget the usual dry, sunny winter. The National Weather Service in Miami says a very strong El Niño will likely make this winter and dry season wetter and stormier than normal across South Florida, and it could rival the historic 1997-1998 event as the strongest since 1950.
Tornadoes top the list of concerns. In El Niño dry seasons, South Florida has historically seen 46 percent more tornadoes and twice as many strong to violent EF2-plus twisters as in La Niña years. The pattern shoves a powerful subtropical jet stream farther south, steering storm systems straight across the southern U.S. and Florida. The strong El Niños of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 each produced multiple severe weather and tornado outbreaks in southern Florida. Forecasters can’t predict individual storms this far out, but they want residents to line up reliable ways to receive weather warnings now.
Expect more rain, too. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of above-normal rainfall from January through March at 60 to 70 percent, and strong El Niños have historically added 9 to 16 extra days of measurable rain during the dry season. That raises the risk of flooding, and coastal flooding is a bigger threat than usual, particularly along Florida’s Gulf coast. Temperatures should land near normal: cloudier days hold highs down, milder Pacific air keeps nights warmer, and Arctic cold fronts rarely make it this far south. Freezes are less likely, but not ruled out. The wet pattern is expected to wipe out drought across South Florida by January and keep significant wildfire activity below normal through at least February.
With weather being as predictable as, well, the weather, none of this is guaranteed. The weather service notes that the 1991-1992 dry season came in drier than normal, with no tornadoes reported in South Florida, despite a very strong El Niño. Read exactly what federal forecasters are saying at weather.gov/southflorida.
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