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TROPICAL WAVE: Now 20 Percent Chance System East Of Florida Grows

Tropical Waves Aug 23 2022

Three Tropical Waves Watched By National Hurricane Center…

Tropical Waves Aug 23 2022
The tropical wave east of Florida now has a 20 percent chance of development. Ovals indicate an area of likely development, not necessarily a direction of travel. (National Hurricane Center).


UPDATE: This story has been updated with a new version. Click here for the latest.

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are three tropical waves under the watchful eyes of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center. One, east of Florida, has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or more. Another, just added to the tracking map around 8 a.m. Tuesday, also shows signs of development.

The following is a combination of the National Hurricane Center’s “outlook” for Tuesday, and the Tropical Weather Discussion which covers all three waves being watched.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
  1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W, from 03N to 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Convection has decreased this evening, though weak showers still surround the wave. A recent scatterometer pass revealed broad circulation and a 1010 mb low is analyzed along the wave near 16N. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable and this disturbance has a low (30%) probability of tropical cyclone development through 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 03N to 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed from 05N to 12N, between 50W and 56W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 83W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 15N, between 73W and 83W. The analyzed position changed little from the 1800 UTC analysis. Surface and upper air observations indicated the wave axis remains between The Cayman Islands and San Andres Island.



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